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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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